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Trends and Forecasting
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Trends and Forecasting
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SHRM Leading Indicators of National Employment® (LINE®)
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SHRM LINE® Report
November 2009 |
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Manufacturing |
Services |
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Employment Expectations |
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+15.3 |
+5.9 |
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Recruiting Difficulty |
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+2.8 |
+13.0 |
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New-Hire Compensation |
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-3.0 |
-4.2 |
Click here to learn more about LINE.
SHRM Labor Market Outlook: Q4 2009 (October – December)
- A total of 33% of respondents have some level of concern for the U.S. job market in the fourth quarter: 26% are somewhat pessimistic about job growth in the United States and anticipate job losses, and another 7% are very pessimistic and anticipate job cuts during the quarter. That marks a sizable change from the first quarter of 2009, when a combined 73% of respondents expressed some level of pessimism and predicted deeper cuts in the job market (54% were somewhat pessimistic, 19% were very pessimistic).
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In the fourth quarter of 2009, 59% of companies will maintain their staffing levels and 14% will cut jobs. Among employer categories, 19% of large companies (those with 500 or more employees) will conduct layoffs in the fourth quarter.
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Nonprofit organizations added employees at the highest rate in the third quarter of 2009, with 24% conducting hiring. That sector was followed by privately owned for-profit companies (23%), publicly owned for-profit companies (22%) and the government sector (5%).
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Small and Medium-Sized Businesses and the Recession
This issue of Workplace Visions looks at how different organizations are facing the recession with their own unique challenges, depending on their industry, workforce, customer base, competitors and organization size. While smaller businesses are experiencing an exceptionally tough environment for maintaining strong benefits programs, they offer other advantages that may be making them more attractive to job seekers.
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